Embraer (B3: EMBR3,NYSE: ERJ) has published its 20-year Market Outlook for commercial aircraft deliveries through 2040. The report was presented at a press briefing during the Dubai Air Show today.

The Market Outlook identifies trends that will influence demand for air travel and deliveries of new jet and turboprop aircraft up to 150 seats over the next two decades. Results are given for seven world regions.

Effects of the global pandemic have impacted global traffic recovery, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, which Embraer forecasts to grow 3.3% annually to 2040. The worldwide RPK volume of 2019 is expected to return in 2024.

Three key trends are shaping future demand for travel and aircraft:
(i)  Environment – airlines will acquire more fuel-efficient fleets
(ii)  Digitalization – advances in technology, including work-from-home and videoconferencing
(iii)  Regionalization – re-shoring to localize production and minimize supply-chain disruption.

Highlights of the 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook

Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats 

10,900  units

8,640 jets

2,260 turboprops

Market value of all new aircraft                            

USD 650 billion

Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked          

4.2%  Asia Pacific (includes China)

4.2%  Latin America

3.8%  Africa

3.6%  Middle East

3.5%  CIS

2.3%  Europe

2.0%  North America

RPK share by the end of the decade (2029)           

41%  Asia Pacific

36%  Europe + North America

Jet deliveries (8,640) – ranked by region              

2,710  North America (31.4%)

2,160  Asia Pacific (25.0%)

1,770  Europe (20.5%)

760  Latin America  (8.8%)

640  CIS (7.4%)

320  Middle East (3.7%)

280  Africa (3.2%)      

Turboprop deliveries (2,260) – ranked by region     

900  Asia Pacific (39.8%)

430  Europe (19.0%)

430  North America (19.0%)

180  Africa (8.0%)

180  Latin America (8.0%)

100  CIS (4.4%)

40  Middle East (1.8%)        

For the complete version of the 2021 Market Outlook, including analysis and regional synopses for each of the seven world regions, go to www.embraermarketoutlook2021.com