Embraer (B3: EMBR3,NYSE: ERJ) has published its 20-year Market Outlook for commercial aircraft deliveries through 2040. The report was presented at a press briefing during the Dubai Air Show today.
The Market Outlook identifies trends that will influence demand for air travel and deliveries of new jet and turboprop aircraft up to 150 seats over the next two decades. Results are given for seven world regions.
Effects of the global pandemic have impacted global traffic recovery, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, which Embraer forecasts to grow 3.3% annually to 2040. The worldwide RPK volume of 2019 is expected to return in 2024.
Three key trends are shaping future demand for travel and aircraft:
(i) Environment – airlines will acquire more fuel-efficient fleets
(ii) Digitalization – advances in technology, including work-from-home and videoconferencing
(iii) Regionalization – re-shoring to localize production and minimize supply-chain disruption.
Highlights of the 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook | |
Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats | 10,900 units |
8,640 jets | |
2,260 turboprops | |
Market value of all new aircraft | USD 650 billion |
Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked | 4.2% Asia Pacific (includes China) |
4.2% Latin America | |
3.8% Africa | |
3.6% Middle East | |
3.5% CIS | |
2.3% Europe | |
2.0% North America | |
RPK share by the end of the decade (2029) | 41% Asia Pacific |
36% Europe + North America | |
Jet deliveries (8,640) – ranked by region | 2,710 North America (31.4%) |
2,160 Asia Pacific (25.0%) | |
1,770 Europe (20.5%) | |
760 Latin America (8.8%) | |
640 CIS (7.4%) | |
320 Middle East (3.7%) | |
280 Africa (3.2%) | |
Turboprop deliveries (2,260) – ranked by region | 900 Asia Pacific (39.8%) |
430 Europe (19.0%) | |
430 North America (19.0%) | |
180 Africa (8.0%) | |
180 Latin America (8.0%) | |
100 CIS (4.4%) | |
40 Middle East (1.8%) |
For the complete version of the 2021 Market Outlook, including analysis and regional synopses for each of the seven world regions, go to www.embraermarketoutlook2021.com